Shigeru Ishiba faces election turmoil as Japan approaches a critical upper house election this Sunday. Public anger over rising prices, economic instability, and trade disputes with the United States has severely weakened his political standing. Voter frustration has been building ever since his party’s defeat in last October’s lower house election. That loss highlighted widespread dissatisfaction with past corruption scandals and soaring living costs. Since then, Ishiba’s minority government has struggled to regain the people’s trust or pass effective policies.
Although Ishiba has set a modest goal of securing a simple majority, the odds are stacked against him. Half of the 248 seats in the upper house are being contested. His ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), along with coalition partner Komeito, must win at least 50 seats to maintain control. That target represents a steep drop from the 141 seats the coalition held before the election. Experts warn that a poor performance will trigger demands from within the LDP to replace Ishiba. Even if he clings to power, his position would remain fragile. Under his leadership, the coalition may still lack enough strength to govern effectively.
The public’s top concern is the economy. Prices have risen sharply while incomes remain flat. Rice prices have doubled over the past year due to supply issues and a flawed distribution system. Panic buying emptied store shelves, and Ishiba’s response came too late. The crisis forced the resignation of the farm minister. His replacement, Shinjiro Koizumi, acted quickly by releasing emergency rice reserves. That helped restock stores, but the government’s image suffered lasting damage.
U.S. trade tensions have made things worse. President Donald Trump has criticized Japan for failing to import more American rice and cars. A 25% tariff set to begin on August 1 threatens to hurt the economy even more. Ishiba has resisted trade concessions before the vote, but reaching a deal afterward may be harder. His weak political standing limits his ability to negotiate. That leaves both businesses and citizens uncertain about what comes next.
As economic anxiety grows, populist parties are gaining support. The Sanseito party has surged by promoting anti-foreign, anti-globalist, and anti-vaccine policies. It calls for stricter citizenship rules and ending welfare benefits for foreigners. Critics say such rhetoric spreads disinformation and stokes xenophobia. But some voters feel threatened by foreign workers and see these messages as solutions. In response, the LDP has promised stricter immigration enforcement and penalties for unpaid social benefits by foreign residents. These moves have sparked protests from human rights groups and raised concern among foreign communities. Economists warn Japan’s aging society needs more foreign labor, not less.
While Ishiba’s opponents are growing stronger, they remain divided. Parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Democratic Party for the People, and Sanseito are gaining traction. Many former LDP supporters now see Ishiba as indecisive and weak. Yet no single opposition party offers a clear and united alternative. Some cooperation has occurred, but the opposition is still too fragmented to present a solid front. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda believes that a major loss by the ruling coalition could allow opposition parties to finally push forward policies long blocked by the LDP. These include cutting the consumption tax, legalizing same-sex marriage, and allowing married couples to keep separate names.
Voters head to the polls on Sunday with deep uncertainty. Economic troubles, rising nationalism, and a fragmented political landscape create a volatile mix. Shigeru Ishiba faces election turmoil with no easy path forward. Whether he wins or loses, the results are likely to reshape Japan’s future and determine the direction of its troubled government.
