Shigeru Ishiba faces election test as Japan holds a critical upper house vote on Sunday that could reshape the political landscape. His ruling coalition now risks significant losses, which may further destabilize an already fragile government.
Voters are selecting half of the 248 seats in the upper house, Japan’s less powerful parliamentary chamber. To maintain a simple majority, Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito must win 50 new seats. These would add to the 75 seats not up for re-election. However, this still marks a sharp decline from their pre-election total of 141 seats.
Currently, inflation, wage stagnation, and social spending dominate national concerns. As a result, these issues now lead most policy debates. Many citizens feel Ishiba’s government failed to respond swiftly or effectively. Consequently, voter confidence in the administration continues to erode.
Meanwhile, right-wing populist parties are gaining momentum. For example, the Sanseito party has risen rapidly through its hardline message. With the slogan “Japanese First,” it promotes strict anti-immigration measures and opposes globalist policies. Additionally, its platform includes anti-vaccine positions and support for traditional gender roles.
Therefore, many conservatives have shifted from the LDP to Sanseito. While Ishiba faces growing pressure, he has refused to alter his trade or economic policies. Notably, he continues to resist U.S. demands to import more American rice and autos. A 25% U.S. tariff, scheduled for August 1, could hurt Japan’s economy significantly. Nevertheless, Ishiba has avoided concessions ahead of the vote.
After the election, forming policy may remain difficult. A divided parliament would force the LDP to negotiate with a fragmented opposition. At present, the CDPJ, the DPP, and Sanseito compete for overlapping support. However, they have not united under a single platform. As a result, their divided strategy weakens any real challenge to Ishiba’s coalition.
Even so, many voters want change. At a Tokyo gym polling station, 43-year-old Yuko Tsuji supported the LDP. She valued stability over risky shifts and warned against the rise of extremist views. On the other hand, 57-year-old Daiichi Nasu voted for the CDPJ. He hopes Japan embraces inclusive policies and reforms marriage and gender laws.
In the end, Shigeru Ishiba faces election test as voters weigh national stability against growing calls for transformation. Their decision may decide not only his leadership but also Japan’s future course.
