Thursday, February 12, 2026

Taiwan Contingency Could Threaten Japan

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Wednesday that a Taiwan contingency could directly threaten Japan’s national security. She argued that armed Chinese actions around Taiwan may justify Japan activating collective self-defense under existing security laws.

During a parliamentary session, she answered questions about a potential Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan. She stated that a blockade involving warships or armed pressure could meet the legal threshold for a survival-threatening situation. She also explained that civilian interference alone would not trigger that standard.

Takaichi stressed that the regional environment has grown more dangerous. She said Japan must plan for worst-case scenarios involving a Taiwan contingency. Her remarks align with earlier warnings from former leaders Taro Aso and Shinzo Abe, who both argued that any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would directly affect Japan’s security and its alliance with the United States.

Takaichi took office as Japan’s 104th prime minister last month. Many analysts view her as supportive of stronger ties with Taiwan. They also see her approach as consistent with Abe’s security policies, especially regarding China’s military expansion.

Japan has expanded its focus on Taiwan due to rising Chinese activity in nearby waters. Officials believe Taiwan’s security directly influences Japan’s own defense posture, particularly in the East China Sea. Takaichi’s comments indicate that Tokyo plans to deepen coordination with Washington and strengthen joint planning for a Taiwan contingency.

Regional security experts note that Japan aims to reinforce deterrence by improving readiness and enhancing alliance cooperation. They expect Tokyo to update military exercises, maritime surveillance and rapid-response protocols to match emerging threats.

By publicly linking Japan’s security to a Taiwan contingency, Takaichi signaled a clear message to both allies and adversaries. She emphasized that Japan intends to protect regional stability and defend its interests through proactive and coordinated action.

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