Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party are on track to secure an LDP coalition majority in the February 8 election. Recent polls suggest the bloc could win more than 300 of the Lower House’s 465 seats. Such a result would allow the coalition to override the Upper House, where it currently lacks a majority.
Since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the Lower House on January 23, opinion polls have shown strong support for the ruling coalition. Analysts said an LDP coalition majority would allow smoother parliamentary operations and control of all standing committees.
The LDP alone could capture over 210 single-seat districts, up from the 138 it held before the dissolution. The party may also exceed the 60 proportional representation seats it won in the October 2024 general election. Meanwhile, the Japan Innovation Party may fail to expand beyond its Osaka stronghold and could win fewer than its previous 34 seats.
Opposition parties face a difficult outlook. The Centrist Reform Alliance, which previously held many seats, may lose more than half of its Lower House representation. Analysts said this decline could weaken the opposition’s influence on legislation and debates.
Experts said an LDP coalition majority would help the ruling bloc pass key policies more efficiently. “A two-thirds majority enables the government to override the Upper House and pass important legislation,” said one political analyst. Observers noted that voter turnout and campaign strategies could still change final results.
A potential LDP coalition majority would strengthen legislative power, improve stability in policy execution, and accelerate economic and social reforms. Additionally, the coalition’s strong performance could shape future local and regional elections and influence Japan’s political landscape for years.
As campaigns continue nationwide, both the ruling coalition and opposition parties have intensified voter outreach. Analysts expect the election results to define parliamentary priorities and policy direction for the coming years.
