Lee Jae-myung presidential lead remains strong, even as South Korea’s conservative camp shows signs of renewed momentum. A new Realmeter poll released on Monday reveals that the Democratic Party’s liberal candidate continues to outperform rivals in projected matchups for the upcoming election. The survey, conducted between April 30 and May 2, positions Lee at the front in a competitive three-way race.
In the first hypothetical scenario, Lee received 46.5 percent support against independent candidate Han Duck-soo and centrist Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok. Han followed with 34.3 percent, while Lee Jun-seok drew only 5.9 percent. Although Lee Jae-myung presidential lead still dominates, this outcome signals a narrowing gap between the liberal frontrunner and his challengers.
A second scenario tested Lee’s chances against Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party and again included Lee Jun-seok. Here, Lee secured 46.6 percent support, while Kim gained 27.8 percent. Lee Jun-seok slightly improved to 7.5 percent, suggesting a modest shift among centrist voters. Despite fluctuations, Lee Jae-myung presidential lead continued to top both scenarios.
The poll came just before significant political developments that could affect voter sentiment. On May 2, the same day the poll concluded, the Supreme Court overturned an earlier ruling that had cleared Lee of election law violations. The court’s decision to order a retrial marked a critical setback in Lee’s campaign. However, this turn of events likely did not influence the poll results, which had already been finalized before the ruling’s announcement.
Meanwhile, on May 3, Kim Moon-soo officially clinched the People Power Party nomination, narrowly defeating rival Han Dong-hoon. The timing means voters surveyed were not yet aware of Kim’s confirmation as the party’s main presidential candidate. With that decision now public, conservative voters may begin to rally more decisively behind Kim’s candidacy in future polls.
The data also reflects a gradual decline in Lee’s support. In a previous Realmeter poll, he had reached 50.9 percent in a similar three-way race involving Kim and Lee Jun-seok. His numbers have since dropped by 4.3 percentage points. Conversely, Kim’s backing has grown by 4.5 points during the same period, indicating growing traction among conservative voters. A three-way scenario with Han Duck-soo, however, had not been measured before this survey.
Han and Kim are reportedly exploring ways to unify their campaigns, aiming to consolidate support from the right. If they manage to merge their bids, they may pose a stronger challenge to Lee’s dominance. Nonetheless, for now, Lee Jae-myung presidential lead continues to define the race. The potential alliance between Han and Kim could change that dynamic, especially as conservative leaders seek common ground.
Observers expect future surveys to capture the effects of both the court ruling and Kim’s nomination. Political analysts also note that voter reactions could shift quickly as the race intensifies. South Korea’s political landscape remains volatile, and several key developments may alter public opinion in the coming weeks.
As the nation prepares for a high-stakes election, Lee Jae-myung presidential lead continues to anchor the liberal campaign. However, the conservative bloc is mobilizing quickly and seeking unity. The next phase of the race will test whether Lee’s early advantage can survive mounting legal challenges and an energized opposition.
