North Korea nuclear capabilities may be far larger and expanding faster than previously estimated. Experts warn the trend could shift the strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula within two decades.
At a forum hosted by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Lee Sang-kyu estimated that Pyongyang likely holds between 127 and 150 nuclear weapons. This is more than double conventional global estimates of around 50 warheads. Lee projected the arsenal could reach 200 by 2030 and exceed 400 by 2040 if current enrichment trends continue.
Lee said North Korea has been modernizing and expanding its uranium and plutonium facilities. Kim Jong-un’s directive to exponentially increase warhead production drives the country’s rapid enrichment expansion. According to Lee, North Korea may already maintain 115-131 uranium-based warheads and 15-19 plutonium-based weapons.
International analysts note these figures surpass prior assumptions, highlighting the opacity of Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Lee also flagged the North’s nuclear-powered submarine development, which remains incomplete in reactor, sonar, and launch system integration. He warned that developing a compact, submarine-compatible reactor could take at least a decade. Russian assistance, however, could shorten the timeline.
Jeon Gyeong-ju, a research fellow at KIDA, emphasized that North Korea’s nuclear forces are not yet fully operational. He said the country has created the appearance of a second-strike capability, but improvements remain necessary for real combat effectiveness.
Satellite imagery shows ongoing upgrades at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center throughout 2025. Analysts observed new support buildings, six potential heat exchangers, and continuous reactor operations. These developments signal a focused push to expand weapons-grade material production.
North Korea nuclear ambitions remain a central concern for regional security. Experts warn accelerated production and modernization may force neighboring countries to reassess defense strategies.
The growing North Korea nuclear arsenal presents new challenges for diplomacy and deterrence. Careful monitoring and international coordination are needed to manage potential escalation risks.
