North Korea sees nuclear weapons as survival after US President Donald Trump authorized airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Analysts say the strikes confirm Pyongyang’s long-standing belief in the need for nuclear deterrence. Moreover, the attack dims prospects for renewed talks between North Korea and Washington. Experts in Seoul also warn of deeper military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. However, they stress that North Korea’s situation remains distinct from Iran’s.
Unlike Iran, North Korea already possesses operational nuclear warheads and delivery systems. North Korea sees nuclear weapons as survival because they protect the regime of Kim Jong-un. Pyongyang’s nuclear motivation centers on regime survival rather than deterrence alone. Meanwhile, Tehran frames its program more around national pride and regional deterrence. Experts argue that this fundamental difference shapes how each state responds to US pressure.
Seoul analysts say a US strike on North Korean nuclear sites remains highly unlikely. Pyongyang’s counterstrike capabilities deter any such move. North Korea sees nuclear weapons as survival due to these capabilities. Its arsenal includes ICBMs that can strike the US mainland. Additionally, massed artillery targets densely populated areas like Seoul.
Senior expert Joung Kyeong-woon emphasizes the threat of North Korean artillery. Artillery alone holds millions of South Koreans hostage. This danger prevented past US plans for surgical strikes on Pyongyang. Former President Clinton abandoned such plans during the 1994 nuclear crisis. Historical lessons continue to shape current US policy.
Furthermore, North Korea has fortified key nuclear facilities underground. Joung notes these are buried deep beneath mountains and rock. No current weapons can effectively destroy them. Even tactical nuclear strikes would fail to neutralize the sites. This strengthens Pyongyang’s sense of security.
Pyongyang has also shifted to a formal first-use nuclear policy. Lim Eul-chul highlights this key change. North Korea now authorizes nuclear use preemptively. Its arsenal includes around 40 to 50 operational warheads. This shift further complicates diplomatic efforts.
North Korea’s alliances also differ from Iran’s. It signed a mutual defense treaty with Russia in 2024. China, too, remains protective of regional stability. Both powers would resist US attacks on North Korea. This bolsters Pyongyang’s confidence in its position.
Leif-Eric Easley notes the supportive roles of Russia and China. He argues they can aid North Korea more than Iran. Their backing gives Pyongyang strategic depth. It also deters unilateral US military action. This influences the regime’s foreign policy stance.
Kim Dong-yub warns the Iran strikes will harden Pyongyang’s views. North Korea sees nuclear weapons as survival now more than ever. The strikes validate Kim Jong-un’s nuclear strategy. Pyongyang will likely reject renewed diplomatic outreach. It will instead double down on nuclear development.
Finally, Lim stresses that US actions will reshape North Korea’s diplomacy. Pyongyang will deepen anti-Western ties with Russia and China. It will grow more skeptical of dialogue with Seoul and Washington. Military cooperation with Moscow will likely expand. Meanwhile, nuclear buildup will accelerate.
