Samsung Electronics is set to reclaim its global DRAM lead in the fourth quarter after months of intense competition with SK hynix. The expected turnaround follows a sharp rebound in AI-optimized high-performance memory and conventional DRAM prices. Industry sources said this recovery significantly strengthens Samsung’s semiconductor business profitability.
Major securities houses project Samsung will post over 18 trillion won ($12.2 billion) in operating profit for October–December. The device solutions division, which handles DRAM, NAND flash, and system semiconductors, is forecast to earn 15.1 trillion won. This represents a 166 percent rise from the previous quarter and a 422 percent increase year-on-year.
Earlier this year, SK hynix briefly overtook Samsung in DRAM market share, ending a 33-year streak. SK hynix benefited from early adoption of high-bandwidth memory, a critical component for generative AI model training. Samsung accelerated HBM production and stabilized yields, narrowing the market share gap by the third quarter.
TrendForce data show SK hynix at 33.2 percent, Samsung at 32.6 percent, and Micron at 25.7 percent. The 0.6 percentage point difference is significantly smaller than the six-point gap in the previous quarter. A strong rally in general-purpose DRAM prices also supports Samsung’s DRAM lead recovery.
Global cloud providers expanding AI data centers reduced supply of conventional DRAM, tightening availability and boosting prices. DRAMeXchange reported the average price of 8-gigabit PC-grade DDR4 rose 15.7 percent in November alone to $8.10. This price exceeds $8 for the first time since September 2018, marking nearly a sixfold increase from March lows.
TrendForce expects general-purpose DRAM prices to climb 45–50 percent in the fourth quarter, while overall DRAM rises 50–55 percent. Samsung can capture a significant share of this price surge because it has the largest memory production capacity. Analysts expect Samsung’s DRAM operating margin to reach 53 percent, fueled by rising commodity DRAM prices.
Micron’s upcoming withdrawal from the consumer memory market may add incremental demand for Samsung DRAM products. NAND flash prices are also trending upward, particularly for high-performance TLC and QLC SSDs used in AI-centric servers. The combination of rising DRAM and NAND prices supports a strong recovery for Samsung’s semiconductor profits.
