South Korea’s climb toward a $40,000 per-capita GDP is slowing as the won weakens. The government forecasts the milestone could arrive in 2027, but currency decline may push it to 2028. Analysts expect the economy to face challenges from slower growth and trade uncertainties. This slowdown could affect export industries and household income levels. Policymakers are closely monitoring economic signals to adjust strategies accordingly.
Officials estimate Korea’s per-capita GDP will reach $37,400 this year and $38,900 next year. It may surpass $40,000 two years later. Last year, the figure stood at $36,200. The Finance Ministry projects GDP growth at 3.2 percent this year, 3.9 percent over the next two years, 4 percent in 2028, and 4.1 percent in 2029. Analysts calculate these figures using last year’s $1.87 trillion GDP and population estimates.
After reaching $40,000, per-capita GDP could rise to $42,200 in 2028 and $44,000 in 2029. Maintaining this pace will remain difficult because Korea has missed growth expectations multiple times in recent years. Per-capita GDP first topped $30,000 in 2016 and rose to $35,400 two years later. Economists then predicted $40,000 by 2023. The pandemic and slower domestic demand derailed that trajectory.
The economy rebounded to $37,500 during post-pandemic recovery, then slipped below $35,000 as interest rate hikes slowed growth. Currency fluctuations now strongly affect the $40,000 milestone. Analysts assume an average exchange rate near last year’s level, but the won has weakened sharply amid political unrest and trade risks. At current levels, per-capita GDP may fall just short of $40,000 in 2027, before climbing above $41,000 in 2028.
Meanwhile, Taiwan progresses rapidly and threatens to surpass Korea in per-capita GDP. Its economy could exceed $38,000, overtaking Korea for the first time in more than two decades. Korea once led Taiwan by nearly $10,000 in per-capita GDP. Strong chip exports have narrowed the gap, while Taiwan maintains higher growth rates. Korea grew 2 percent last year, compared with Taiwan’s 4.3 percent.
South Korea faces multiple challenges in reaching the $40,000 per-capita GDP target. Currency weakness, slower growth, and global competition could delay progress. Policymakers must act quickly to support domestic industries. Maintaining export competitiveness will remain crucial for achieving long-term growth.
