Thursday, December 4, 2025

Stability Shapes South Korea’s North Korea Strategy

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Policy stability now sits at the center of South Korea’s debate over its North Korea strategy. The issue has gained urgency one year after the country experienced its first martial law declaration since 1979.

The discussion intensified this week as former president Yoon Suk Yeol returned to court. Prosecutors argued that he approved covert drone flights into Pyongyang last year to provoke a military reaction that could justify martial law. According to investigators, the drones dropped anti-regime leaflets before one crashed near North Korea’s capital.

The flight triggered retaliatory balloon launches filled with garbage. More than 260 balloons crossed the border during that period, raising tensions and public concern.

Analysts said the case highlights how politics and security have become entangled. Many argue that shifting goals and rhetoric have weakened national credibility and complicated diplomacy. They believe policy stability is necessary if Seoul wants consistent deterrence and effective dialogue.

Current president Lee Jae Myung has adopted a softer tone. His administration promotes coexistence, reduced military tension and possible cooperation. He avoided the word denuclearization and instead urged “a Korean Peninsula without nuclear weapons.” Officials said the wording aims to reduce North Korea’s resistance to dialogue.

However, scholars warned that dialogue alone will not change Pyongyang’s position. They said North Korea views the South as hostile and sees no meaningful incentives to negotiate. They stressed that policy stability and clear long-term goals are essential for progress.

At the same time, South Korea continues strengthening deterrence with the United States. Seoul plans to increase defense spending and modernize security cooperation. Washington supports South Korea’s pursuit of advanced submarines, nuclear-related technology and next-generation defense systems.

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said diplomacy must work alongside deterrence. He explained that regional risks are rising due to North Korea’s military cooperation with Russia and shifting power dynamics in East Asia. He also stressed the value of stronger trilateral coordination with Japan.

Lawmakers and experts now question whether South Korea can build consensus across political lines. Many believe policy stability will determine how the country manages security, diplomacy and alliance commitments in the years ahead.

For now, policy stability remains the core demand and the primary challenge as Seoul seeks a steady path forward.

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