Experts in South Korea say a Trump-North Korea summit at the APEC gathering remains highly unlikely. Analysts temper speculation about a surprise meeting during the US president’s Asia visit. Moreover, North Korea has shown no willingness to engage in formal negotiations.
Reports suggested that US officials explored the possibility of a Trump-North Korea summit. However, they have not contacted Pyongyang directly or made logistical arrangements. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea has yet to respond meaningfully. He noted that the situation differs from the 2019 Panmunjom meeting, where both sides had expectations for renewed talks.
North Korea has strengthened its nuclear posture and deepened ties with China and Russia. Lim Eul-chul, professor at Kyungnam University, said the country now views denuclearization as national policy, not a negotiation point. Consequently, the risks of any informal encounter outweigh potential symbolic benefits for Pyongyang. Analysts agree that a casual meeting could create domestic and international pressures North Korea prefers to avoid.
Trump’s foreign policy focus has shifted toward economic issues, particularly easing trade tensions with China. Lim emphasized that meeting Kim might be tempting for political optics, but Pyongyang prioritizes strategic stability. North Korea’s upcoming 9th Party Congress further reduces the likelihood of engagement, as Kim seeks to consolidate domestic policy.
Experts argue that a meaningful summit would require significant geopolitical changes and pre-negotiated outcomes. Without tangible progress on denuclearization or sanctions relief, any encounter would remain purely symbolic. Yang noted that Trump’s unpredictable style could allow for a brief, informal exchange, potentially at Panmunjom’s Freedom House. Yet, he stressed that such a scenario remains remote.
Seoul’s Ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, dismissed any current signs of a planned meeting. She confirmed that both leaders express openness to dialogue but emphasized that no concrete plans exist for the APEC summit. Meanwhile, South Korea monitors developments closely as Trump prepares to visit Gyeongju for APEC.
Trump previously met Kim in three historic summits between 2018 and 2019. Those talks failed to produce denuclearization progress. Since then, Pyongyang has expanded its nuclear arsenal, formalized its stance toward South Korea as an “enemy state,” and strengthened relations with Moscow and Beijing. These shifts drastically reduce incentives for North Korea to meet with Trump in Asia.
Overall, experts maintain that a Trump-North Korea summit is highly improbable unless major diplomatic or strategic shifts occur. Seoul continues to observe developments, leaving open the slim possibility for dialogue. Analysts stress that symbolic meetings without pre-agreed outcomes carry risks that Pyongyang is unwilling to take.
