Taiwan’s population will drop below 12 million by 2065 according to an upcoming National Development Council report. The council plans to release its latest population projections in August using an ultra-low fertility model. Sources familiar with the report shared preliminary findings yesterday. The previous projection had estimated 14.37 million people by 2070. The new numbers show a much faster decline than anticipated.
The total fertility rate has fallen dramatically below all previous forecasts. Last year’s actual TFR measured just 0.695 children per woman. This figure sits about 17 percent lower than even the most pessimistic estimate from 2024. The previous report had used high, medium, and low estimates of 1.05, 0.95, and 0.84 children respectively. None of those scenarios anticipated such a rapid fertility collapse. As the demographic crisis deepens, each new data point brings worse news than the last.
The proportion of middle-aged and older workers will rise significantly under the new projections. Workers aged 45 to 64 will account for more than 60 percent of the labor force by 2070. The previous report had estimated only 55.9 percent for that same year. The elderly dependency ratio will also exceed 100 percent much sooner than previously expected. One working-age person will soon need to support one elderly person without counting children. The earlier projection suggested this milestone would not occur until 2070. Now it will happen well before that date arrives.
Taiwan officially became a super-aged society last year. More than 20 percent of the population is now 65 years or older. With newborn numbers collapsing, the proportion of elderly people will rise even faster. An NDC official speaking anonymously explained the severity of these trends. Preliminary calculations using last year’s TFR show elderly people exceeding half the population well before 2070. The previous report had projected only 46.5 percent elderly by that year. Among those, people older than 85 would make up 31.4 percent of the total population. The demographic crisis deepens across every age cohort, affecting young and old alike.
Children born last year will face enormous pressure when they enter their forties. Each working-age person will need to support one elderly person without counting child-rearing costs. The working-age population, defined as those aged 15 to 64, will shrink dramatically. Previous projections estimated a decline from 16.11 million in 2024 to 6.61 million by 2070. New data shows the inflow of young workers will drop about 20 percent below those already lowered expectations. The labor shortage will therefore become much more severe than previously modeled.
The government may soon confront a very difficult policy question. Raising the official retirement age could become necessary as the workforce shrinks. Fewer young workers will need to support a much larger elderly population. The proportion of middle-aged and older workers will rise even more sharply than previously forecast. Previous estimates suggested workers aged 45 to 64 would account for 51.8 percent of the labor force by 2040. That number now looks far too optimistic given the latest fertility data. Policymakers will need to act quickly to address these structural challenges. Immigration policy changes and elder care reforms will likely follow retirement age discussions. Without significant policy intervention, the demographic crisis deepens with each passing year.
