China may attempt to seize Taiwan’s outer islands to increase pressure on Taipei and challenge U.S. defense commitments. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) raised this concern in its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment. Officials released the report earlier this month, outlining several potential moves Beijing could make short of a full invasion.
The report highlights several key targets. These include Kinmen, Matsu, Dongsha, Taiping Island, and Penghu. These small islands lie closer to mainland China than to Taiwan’s main island. Their proximity makes them especially vulnerable.
The assessment clearly states that China may seize Taiwan’s outer islands to test US resolve. While a full-scale invasion is not expected in 2025, Beijing’s military activity is growing steadily. The PLA may shift from exercises to actual seizure operations in these areas.
According to the report, China sees multiple paths to pressuring Taiwan. These include joint firepower strikes, increased air and naval patrols, blockades, and island takeovers. Each move would allow Beijing to test Washington’s willingness to act.
Moreover, the report underlines a key point: China may seize Taiwan’s outer islands to test US resolve. Officials believe Beijing still prefers unification through negotiation. However, China may act if it feels Taipei or its allies cross a red line.
In addition to military actions, China continues applying diplomatic and economic pressure. Beijing uses propaganda, sanctions, and foreign policy moves to isolate Taiwan. These tactics aim to prevent the island from declaring independence.
Strategic analysts stress that Kinmen and Matsu are especially at risk. They sit just off China’s coast—over 160 kilometers from Taiwan’s main island. Their position gives China a major tactical advantage.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War also issued a strong warning. The group noted that Beijing is using legal warfare, infrastructure projects, and disinformation campaigns to weaken Taiwan’s hold on the islands.
These gray-zone tactics allow China to advance its goals without open conflict. They also help Beijing sway local sentiment on these islands. Residents face both economic offers and subtle threats from China.
Experts now warn that China may seize Taiwan’s outer islands to test US resolve sooner than many expect. Guam, a major U.S. military base, would likely serve as the primary response center.
For now, Taiwan continues to reinforce its coastal defenses. But the situation remains tense. Beijing shows no signs of backing down. And Washington watches every move closely.
