Japan defense spending faces uncertainty after election as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba struggles to maintain political stability and military commitments. Although Japan remains on track to meet its 2 percent defense spending goal by 2027, future increases remain in doubt.
The government committed in 2022 to spend 43 trillion yen over five years to reach the NATO-style 2 percent threshold. This decision reflected rising threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. However, the plan’s continuation depends heavily on political strength and support in parliament.
Now, with Sunday’s upper house election looming, Ishiba’s ruling coalition may lose its fragile majority. Such a loss would complicate efforts to raise defense budgets beyond 2 percent in future years. Ishiba already lost control of the more powerful lower house last October, weakening his position further.
Despite growing pressure from Washington, Japan defense spending faces uncertainty after election due to limited domestic political will. President Donald Trump has urged allies to boost defense investments. Reports suggest the U.S. wants Japan to raise spending to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035.
Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said Japan has made steady progress, but no decision exists for budgets beyond 2027. He emphasized that future decisions depend on the political landscape after the vote. In fiscal 2025, Japan plans to spend 9.9 trillion yen—already 1.8 percent of GDP.
To fund the plan, the government approved new taxes on tobacco, corporations, and personal income. Although corporate and tobacco tax hikes begin in April 2026, the timing of the income tax increase remains undecided. The Ishiba cabinet inherited this delay after former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida left office.
Opposition parties remain divided on the defense issue. While the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan supports strong security, its leader Yoshihiko Noda rejects tax hikes. He claims the 43 trillion yen target lacks justification and instead proposes a consumption tax cut.
Other parties, like Komeito, Sanseito, and the Japan Innovation Party, support defense reinforcement but have offered no funding details. In contrast, progressive parties—including the Japanese Communist Party—oppose any budget increases. They argue expansion violates Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Analysts warn that Japan defense spending faces uncertainty after election because weak political leadership could delay necessary financial planning. If Ishiba’s influence weakens, bureaucrats at the Finance Ministry may hesitate to support new spending proposals.
According to Hirohito Ogi from the Institute of Geoeconomics, “If the Prime Minister lacks authority, the budget office won’t cooperate.” He stressed that real progress requires a strong and stable cabinet.
Despite the pressure from allies and rising global threats, Japan’s defense future remains tangled in domestic politics. Long-term military expansion may hinge not just on policy, but on Ishiba’s ability to hold power and lead.
