China witnessed noticeable regional population growth last year despite a continuing national population decline. Data from provincial authorities shows that at least eight regions experienced population increases. These include Guangdong and Hainan in the south, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Fujian in the east, and Xinjiang, Xizang, and Shaanxi in the west. Meanwhile, Jiangsu and Tianjin maintained stable population levels, but 19 other regions reported decreases. Heilongjiang and Ningxia have not yet released their demographic data.
China’s total population dropped for the third consecutive year in 2024, falling by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion. Experts blame this on a declining birth rate and fewer women of childbearing age. However, regional population growth continues due to internal migration and natural increases, showing a strong trend toward urbanization.
Professor Wang Jinying from Hebei University explained that the regions with growth followed three patterns. First, economically vibrant provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong saw increased migration due to job opportunities. These regions recorded population increases of 430,000 and 740,000 respectively. Xinjiang also followed this trend, drawing people with new trade and development opportunities linked to the Belt and Road Initiative.
Second, places like Anhui, Shaanxi, and Fujian previously faced large outward migration. But now, due to economic improvements, they are seeing residents return. These provinces have curbed outflow and attracted new populations. Even though the growth remains modest, the changes signal a reversal of past migration patterns. Fujian’s population grew by 100,000, while Anhui and Shaanxi each gained fewer than 20,000 residents.
Third, regions like Xizang, Hainan, and Yunnan showed regional population growth through natural increases. These areas had higher birth rates than death rates, contributing to overall gains.
Despite this, provinces like Jilin and Liaoning in the northeast continued to see population drops due to emigration and low birth rates. However, both provinces reported about 9,000 more births compared to the previous year. Nationally, China saw a slight rise in newborns, totaling 9.54 million, up by 520,000. Experts believe this increase is due to people who delayed marriage during the pandemic now starting families. The Year of the Dragon in 2024 also encouraged more births.
Experts expect China’s urban population to keep rising as people continue moving to cities. A recent study projects the urbanization rate to reach 75.4 percent by 2035, up from 67 percent in 2024. Cities along the Yangtze River and coastal zones are growing fast. Meanwhile, population decline is now affecting some central and western areas as well.
Regions with strong economies and better services, such as those in the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas, are expected to see more regional population growth. In contrast, small and underdeveloped cities will likely face ongoing population loss. Wang warned that China’s total population will probably keep falling, creating competition for labor and widening regional gaps.
To counter these trends, he recommended more balanced development across regions. Strengthening central cities and building urban clusters will help attract residents. He cited Hefei, in Anhui province, as a successful example of a new economic hub attracting people who once preferred cities like Shanghai. Finally, he emphasized the need to expand public services, especially healthcare, education, and fertility support, to accommodate this shift in regional population growth.
