Recent analysis by a leading China expert suggests Beijing may prefer a strategy of slow reunification with Taiwan instead of launching a direct military invasion. Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, challenges the common belief that China aims to invade Taiwan by 2027. Instead, he argues China might gradually absorb Taiwan through psychological and political means.
The year 2027 has become a focal point due to the 100th anniversary of China’s People’s Liberation Army. U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, have warned that China could be preparing for a military operation by then. However, Brown notes that Chinese President Xi Jinping has publicly dismissed any timeline for invasion. Xi prefers to avoid setting a strict deadline, suggesting more cautious planning.
Brown emphasizes that fear of failure likely holds China back from rushing into conflict. China’s leaders worry that a failed military action could trigger internal instability or even risk their hold on power. Instead, Beijing may rely on patience, betting that Western nations will remain politically divided. These divisions could weaken support for Taiwan over time.
Taiwan itself faces growing internal divisions. Brown highlights recent political struggles, including efforts by Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party to recall opposition lawmakers. He believes that cultural ties between Taiwan and China will gradually gain influence, especially as Taiwanese opinions shift. According to a recent poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, 49% of Taiwanese trust the U.S. more than China, while 43% trust China more. This split shows Taiwan’s political landscape is far from unified.
Brown concludes that the idea of slow reunification seemed unrealistic a decade ago. Today, it feels more plausible. Over time, this gradual approach might become China’s preferred path to absorbing Taiwan. In summary, the evolving situation suggests that Beijing’s strategy could focus less on military invasion and more on a patient, strategic campaign of slow reunification. This approach could reshape regional dynamics in the years ahead.
