Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has made clear his intention to reshape U.S. foreign policy, placing a priority on driving a wedge between Russia and China. In an interview last October with commentator Tucker Carlson, Trump argued that the Biden administration had made a strategic blunder by, in his view, pushing the two powers closer together. “I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too,” he said.
Trump’s latest diplomatic moves reflect this thinking. His eagerness to negotiate with Russia and bring a rapid end to the war in Ukraine—potentially at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty—has raised questions about whether the broader aim is to entice Moscow away from Beijing and refocus American efforts on containing Chinese power.
Following a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump remarked, “As a student of history, which I am – and I’ve watched it all – the first thing you learn is you don’t want Russia and China to get together.” The comment echoes the Cold War-era strategy of Richard Nixon, who famously realigned U.S. relations by engaging China to counterbalance the Soviet Union.
However, today’s global dynamics differ sharply from those of the 1970s. Russia and China are no longer uneasy communist rivals but increasingly coordinated partners with a shared desire to challenge U.S. global influence. Their cooperation has deepened over decades, from military exercises and energy partnerships to joint positions on issues such as NATO expansion and sanctions.
Trump’s view may overestimate the possibility of splitting Moscow and Beijing. Despite past tensions, both powers currently see value in presenting a united front against what they perceive as Western overreach. In Beijing, Trump’s approach to Ukraine and his broader retreat from traditional alliances are often interpreted not as geopolitical chess moves, but as signs of American inconsistency and decline.
While Russia and China are pragmatic actors, their shared strategic goals—such as eroding U.S.-led global institutions and promoting multipolarity—offer them strong incentives to maintain close ties. For Trump, attempting to reprise Cold War-era diplomacy without recognizing the vastly different realities of the modern world could limit the effectiveness of his efforts.
As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s foreign priorities, the true test will be whether the old playbook can deliver in a world where the lines of alliance and rivalry are more fluid—and more entrenched—than ever before.
